Het is / zijn: 'statistical rigor', 'statistical noise' en 'simple models'. En dat de pers dit oppikt bewijst hoe beroerd (ook) die onderlegt is in wat zich buiten daadwerkelijk afspeelt.
Jackson, J.B.C. 1997. Reefs since Columbus. Coral Reefs 16: 23-32.
p24: Another insidious consequence of this “shifting baseline syndrome” is a growing ecomanagement culture that accepts the status quo, and fiddles with it under the mantle of experimental design and statistical rigor, without any clear frame of reference of what it is they are trying to manage or conserve.
Jackson, J.B.C., K.E. Alexander. Introduction: The Importance of Shifting Baselines. In: Jackson, J.B.C., K.E. Alexander, E. Sala (eds.). 2011. Shifting Baselines. The past and future of ocean fisheries: 1-7. Island Press, Washington.
p4: In contrast, most ecologists, fisheries biologists, policymakers, and fishers today focus on quantitative estimates of population size rather than on functional processes. Conventional scientific wisdom tells us that historical data are rarely precise enough to estimate past populations (although evidence mounts to the contrary), so realism is sacrificed for precision. But such “precisionism” is seriously misguided. It focuses on recent fluctuations of a few percent while ignoring extraordinary losses in the past. We miss the signal by focussing intently on what is all too commonly statistical noise.
Ricklefs, R.E., D. Schluter. Species Diversity: Regional and Historical Influences. In: Ricklefs, R.E., D. Schluter (eds.). 1993. Species Diversity in Ecological Communities, historical and geographical perspectives: 350-363. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
p350: Ecological insights gained from simple models, laboratory systems, and controlled experiments in nature, while valid in their own contexts, do not transfer well to natural systems, in which spatial heterogeneity over a variety of distances, historical development of species assemblages, and evolution enter the overall equation for coexistence.