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Based on population estimates of birds staging in southwest Alaska, the Alaskan population declined by 2.3% per year since 1992 (or 46% over 20 years) during 1992-2011 (Larned 2012). Declines in Europe have been even steeper, with an estimated decline of 66.4% between Baltic-wide surveys in 1993 and 2009 (Skov et al. 2011). It is unclear, however, whether these declines were genuine, or reflect a redistribution to other wintering areas, including Russia (Aarvak et al. 2012). Conservatively assuming the Asian population was stable over this time, and taking into account the smaller relative size of the European population, a precautionary decline rate of 30-49 % over 12 years is assumed.